Ubushakashatsi ku bwiyongere bw’abaturage mu myaka 100 iri imbere bwagaragaje ko hari ibihugu abaturage babyo bazagabanuka ku kigero cya 50% n’aho Afurika yo musi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara, abaturage bazikuba 3.
Abashakashatsi ba Kaminuza ya Washington muri Leta z’unze ubumwe z’Amerika bagaragaje ko ibihugu byinshi by’Uburayi na Aziya abaturage bayo bashobora kugabanuka ku buryo budasanzwe. Aho Spain n’Ubuyapani abaturage bazagabanuka ku kigero cya 50%.
Mu mpamvu aba bashakashatsi bagaragaza zizatera igabanuka ry’abatuye bibi bihugu, harimo uburyo bwo kuboneza urubyaro byatangiye gukoresha mbere y’ibindi bihugu. Kugeza ubu muri ibi bihugu usanga umubare w’abakuze uruta cyane uw’urubyiruko. Ibi ngo biramutse bikomeje Spain n’Ubuyapani muri 2100 , abaturage babo bagabanukaho 50%.
Hagendewe ku mibare y’abana bavuka mu bihugu, ubushakashatsi buvuga ko Afurika ariwo mugabane ufite umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere ukabije. Kuko nko muri Afurika yo musi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara abaturage bayo bashobora kwikuba inshuro 3 mu mwaka 2100.
Mu bihugu biteye imbere ubushakashatsi bwagaragaje ko ikigero cy’abana umugore umwe ashobora kubyara mu buzima bwe bwose kigeze kuri 2.1, mu gihe ikigeraranyo cyabo ashobora kubyara muri rusange ari 4.7 ku mugore umwe.
Prof Christopher Murray umwarimu muri iyi kaminuza, akaba n’uhagarariye itsinda ry’abarimu n’abanyeshuri ryakoze ubu bushakashatsi atanga urugero kuri Nigeria nka kimwe mu bihugu bifite ubwiyongere bukabije kw’abaturage . Yavuze ko Nigeria ifite ubwiyongere bukabije bw’abaturage ku buryo ikomeje ku muvuduko iriho yazagera muri 2100 ari igihugu cya kabiri gituwe cyane ku isi.
Bitenaganijweko mu mwaka 2064 uyu mubumbe uzaba utuwe na miliyari 9.7 nyuma wongere ugabanuke ugere kuri miliyari 8.8 mu mpera z’iki kinyejana.
Prof Christopher Murray yavuze ko kuba abantu bo mu bihugu biteye imbere batabyara cyane atari uko batabishobora ko ahubwo ari gahunda bihaye yo kubyara abana bake. Yagize ati” Ntabwo ari ikibazo cy’intanga cyangwa ibindi abantu batekereza iyo havuzwe ikibazo cy’imbyaro.Ahubwo bituruka ku kuba abagore benshi bari kwiga no gukora imirimo, hamwe no kuboneka kw’imiti iringaniza imbyaro, ibi bituma abagore bahitamo kubyara bake”
Abatuye Ubuyapani biteganyijwe ko bazagabanuka bakava kuri miliyoni 128 mu 2017 bakagera munsi ya miliyoni 53 mu 2100.
Ubutaliyani bwiteze igabanuka nk’iri aho abaturage bazava kuri miliyoni 61 bakagera kuri 28 mu gihe nk’icyo.
Mu bindi bihugu 23 byitezweho igabanuka rikomeye ry’abaturage birimo Portugal, Thailand, na Korea y’Epfo aho biteganyijwe ko ababituye bazagabanukaho 1/2.
