Mu gice cya mbere twabagejejeho imvano y’intambara ya Ukraine n’Uburusiya, ibihugu by’abavandimwe bihuje ibintu byinshi.Mu gice cya nyuma turagaruka uburyo perezida Poutine yabanje kwitegura iyi ntambara igihe kirekire ndetse naho yerekeza.
Mu 2015, ubwo intambara yarikomeje mu ntara za Donetsk na Luhansk, OTAN n’Uburayi byarimo gukurura Kiev.
Perezida w’Uburusiya Vladimir Poutine, mu 2017 yahise yubaka undi muyoboro wa Gaz uva m’Uburusiya, unyura mu nyanja y’Umukara werekeza muri Turukiya kugira ngo ugaburire Uburayi, bityo Ukraine yari yihenuye k’Uburusiya ibure Komisiyo y’amafaranga yabonaga kubera kunyuza gaz k’ubutaka bwayo yerekera i Burayi.
Uyu munshinga Trukstrim wa Turukiya, Perezida Teyp Erdogan yarawishimiye cyane kubera inyungu igihugu cye cyari kibonye.
Poutine ntiyahagaririye aho, kuko mu 2018, undi mushinga bise Stream 2 uhuza Uburusiya unyuze mu nyanja ya Balt ukagera m’Ubudage, Madamu Angela Merkel wayoboraga Ubudage,yawakiranye yombi kuko waruje gutuma Ubudage bubona Gaz ihendutse bwari gukoresha mu nganda ndetse bukanagurisha mu bihugu by’Uburayi.
Ibi biri mu byatumye Madam Merkel yishimirwa n’Abadage kuko yazamuye ubukungu cyane.
Iyi mishinga yose, harimo no kubaka ikiraro cya Crimea, iri mu byatumye Poutine yitegura intambara karundura, we yabonaga neza neza ko OTAN ishaka kuza mu marembo ya Moscow.
Kuva mu 2003, Moscow na Kiev byari byarasinye amasezerano yo gukoresha inyanja y’Azov ikora k’umujyi wa Mariupol na Crimea, guhera mu 2018, Poutine yahise asesa ayo masezerano maze ibicuruzwa bivuye Mariupol byinjira mu njyanja y’Azov ihura n’Inyanja y’Umukara, Ukraine itangira gujya ibisabira uruhushya, ku buryo mu 2018, hari amato manini 3 y’igisirikare, yashakaga kwinjira mu nyanja y’Azov afatwa n’Uburusiya buyashinja kurenga ku mategeko.
Mu 2019, Vorodomir Zelensky yaratowe maze yizeza abaturage ko agiye guhagarika intambara.
Ndetse yagize ubushake bwo kuganira na Poutine, maze amato atatu ya gisirikare, Poutine yari yafashe yemera kuyasubiza.
Zelensky nubwo yakomeje kuvugana na Poutine, ariko yakomeje kwiyegereza OTAN ndetse anasaba kuyijyamo, ibyo Poutine yavugaga ko ari ukurenga umurongo utukura.
Mu 2021, Poutine yujuje ingabo ku mupaka wa Ukraine ndetse izindi azizhyira Belarus arinako yihanangiriza OTAN kugira umunyamuryango Ukraine.
Mu 2022 , OTAN yasubije Moscow ko igihugu cy’igenga cyemerewe guhitamo umuryango bakorana nacyo.
Muri uwo mwaka, Moscow, yohereje abasirikare ibigumbi 30 muri Belarus , maze bituma Uburusiya bugota Ukraine n’ingabo ibihumbi 190.
Disikuru itazibagirana ya Poutine
Muri Gashyantare 2022, Poutine yavuze disikuru y’amateka, yibutsa isi ko Ukraine, amateka ayikurura k’Uburusiya, yibutsa ko Vladimir Lenin mu 1922 ariwe wahaye leta ya Ukraine kugira ubwigenge bwinshi, mu rwego rwo kwegereza ubutegetsi abaturage.
Poutine yakomeje agaya kuba Ukraine yarahaye igice cy’ubutaka bwayo bunini Pologne ,Hongria na Rumaniya mu ntambara ya 2 y’isi. Ndetse no kuba Ukraine yarahawe Crimea mu 1954.
Nyuma yo kugwa kwa URSS, Poutine yakomeje disikuru ye, ashinja Ukraine yari imaze kwigenga muri za 1991, gusiba amateka ayihuza n’Uburusiya, hanyuma ikazana umwanzi w’ibihe byose OTAN mu marembo ya Moscow, ikintu Poutine yagaragaje ko ari ukurenga umurongo utukura, nyamara mu masezerano OTAN yagiranye n’Uburusiya ari uko, uyu muryango wagombaga kwirinda kwegera imbibi z’Uburusiya, ikintu wari wararenzeho.
Poutine, yashinje Ukraine gukora Jenoside ku baturage bavuga Ikirusiya, maze atangaza ku mugaragaro ko yemeje leta zigenga Donetsk na Luhansky,zahoze ari intara za Ukraine, aribwo yahise asinya ku mugaragaro ko yiyemeje kuzishyigikira yoherezayo ingabo.
Ku wa 24 Gashyantare 2022, Perezida Poutine yatangaje icyo yise Operasiyo idasanzwe ngo yo kurwanya ingengabitekerezo y’abanazi muri Ukraine.
Intambara y’Uburusiya uko yari ipanze mu mizo ya mbere.
Mu ntangiriro, Poutine yateye ibice bya Ukraine ahereye mu ntara zari zarigenze za Ukraine Donetsk na Luhansk, aho yaraturutse m’Uburasirazuba bwa Ukraine, igindi gice cyahereye mu majyepfo ashyira Uburasirazuba bwa Ukraine mu mujyi wa Kherson, igice cya gatatu cyavuye Belarus mu majyaruguru cyiza kigana Kiev.
Iyi Operasiyo ntiyari igamije gufata Ukraine yose kuko ni igihugu kinini cya kabiri mu Burayi, ku gishyira kuri gahunda byari kugorana, ahubwo iyi ( Plan) Abakomando baba Chechen n’Uburusiya bari baturutse mu majyaruguru berekeza Kiev, bagombaga gufata mpiri perezida Zelensky cyangwa bakamuhitana, hanyuma hagashyirwaho undi wari kugendana na politike y’Uburusiya kuri Ukraine, kwemera Crimea, ndetse na leta za Donetsk na Luhansky.
Iyi Plan yagombaga kuba mu gihe gito gishoboka.
Ibihano k’Uburusiya
Ibihugu by’Uburengerazuba bw’isi byahise bishyiraho ibihano karundura kuri peterorli na gaz by’Uburusiya.
Uburayi,Amerika na Canada byahise bifungira inzira y’ikirere Uburusiya, Ubuyapani na Koreya y’Epfo nabyo byahise bifata ibihano by’ubukungu.
Poutine yari yariteguye igihe kinini, kuko yakomeje gucuruza Gaz i Burayi, Aziya, Ubushinwa, Mongoliya, Ubuhinde ku buryo ibihano ibihumbi n’ibihumbagiza, bitahungabanyije ubukungu bw’Uburusiya ngo burunduke ukurikije uko yari yahagurukiwe.
Perezida Zelensky, yakomeje gusaba ko Uburengerazuba bwakora iyo bwabaga ngo Ukraine yinjire muri OTAN, ariko uyu muryango uranga mu rwego rwo kwirinda intambara y’Ibisasu kirimbuzi n’Uburusiya.
Muri rusange, Uburusiya bumaze kwigarurira uduce tune dukomeye Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, na Zaporizhzhia, muri Repuburika za Donetsk Luhansk.
Ukongeraho Crimea yometswe k’Uburusiya mu 2014.
Umujyi wa Bakhmout wabaye isibaniro, aha niho hatumye Dimitry Prigozhin wayoboye umutwe wa Wagner wigaragaje cyane ariko aza kutumvikana na Poutine bitewe no gutakaza abasirikare benshi, bituma uyu Prigozhin yivumbura agaba ibitero byerekeza Moscow.
Prigzhin ibye byaje kurangira ubwo yakoze impanuka y’indege itavugwaho rumwe yavaga i Moscow yerekeza i Saint Peter’s Burg mu mujyi wa Kabiri w’Uburusiya.
Mu 2024, Ukraine yagabye ibitero bikomeye mu gace ka Kursk kari m’Uburusiya kugira ngo bizorohere Zelensky kujya mu mishyikirano agafite.
Gusa iyi plan, Zelensky ntabwo yamuhiriye, nubwo yamaranye agace ka Kursk umwaka wose, ariko mu ntangiriro zuyu mwaka ingabo z’Uburusiya zarakamwambuye kose.
Perezida Donald Trump nawe yaje gushyiraho itafari rye.
Nubwo perezida Trump nawe yahoze avuga ko iyi ntambara iyo aza kuba ayobora iba itarabaye, ndetse ngo narahira izahita irangira mu masaha 24, ibintu bikomeje kugorana, kuko nta masezerano y’amahoro arasinywa, Poutine biragaragara ko atazarekura uduce yafashe twavuze hejuru.
Iyi ntambara ni nkiyo Poutine yakoze mu 2008, aho yateraga Georgie ubwo yari igiye kujya muri Otan, agafata intara ya Ossetia na Abkhazia, intara nini nubu yanze kurekura, gusa ubwo yari agiye gusatira Tibilisi, habaye imishyikirano asubira inyuma ntiyafata umurwa mukuru,ariko bituma Georgia itajya muri OTAN.
Ibyo buri ruhande rusaba ngo haboneke amahoro hagati ya Ukraine n’Uburusiya.
Perezida Poutine asaba ko uduce tune twa Donetsk, Kherson,Louhansk na Zaporijjia tungana na 20% by’ubuso bwa Ukraine 125.000 Km2 ni ukuvuga inshuro 10 ubuso bw’u Rwanda,tuguma k’Uburusiya.
Ukongeraho na Crimea yometswe k’Uburusiya mu 2014.
Icyakabiri asaba, ni uko Ukraine itemerewe kujya muri OTAN, kuko bishyira mu kaga umutekano w’Uburusiya, ndetse hagahagarikwa gukomeza guha intwaro Ukraine ziva m’Uburengerazuba ndetse Zelensky akavaho kuko manda ye yarangiye.
Perezida Zelensky, we arasaba ko Uburusiya busubiza ubutaka bwose bwigaruriye ushyizemo na Crimea.
Icyakabiri, Ukraine irasaba ko ingabo z’amahanga zaza kurinda amahoro k’ubutaka bwa Ukraine, ndetse Ukraine, OTAN ikayemerera kuba umunyamuryango.
Perezida Trump, we arashaka ko habaho amasezerano yo gucukura muri Ukraine amabuye y’agaciro aboneka gacye ku isi, ndetse no gusezerana na Poutine, ko Amerika yarinda inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi avuye ku ingufu za kirimbuzi, ndetse igacukura amabuye mu duce twigaruriwe n’Uburusiya.
Icyakabiri, Trump, aremera gutanga envelope ya Miliyari 500$ yo gusana imijyi ya Ukraine yangiritse, ndetse akaba yemera ko Ukraine itajya muri OTAN, no kwemera ko Crimea ari igice cy’Uburusiya.
Ingaruka z’iyi ntambara
Ingaruka ku mpande zombi zikomeje kwiyongera, kuruhande rw’Uburusiya nibura ingabo ziri hagati y’ibihumbi 100 n’ibihumbi 250 zimaze gupfira ku rugamba, naho inkomere akaba ari ibihumbi 700. (Nubwo iyi mibare ari igereranya).
Ubukungu bw’Uburusiya ubu bwubakiye cyane cyane k’Ubuhinde n’Ubushinwa, aho Poutine yatangiye undi mushinga wa kabiri wohereza Gaz na Peteroli mu nkombo zerekeza mu Bushinwa.
Ukraine imibare yemera itangaza yabaguye k’urugamba ni Ibihumbi 46 bimaze gupfa, naho inkomere akaba ari ibihumbi 300.
ONU itangaza ko 1/4 cy’abaturage ba Ukraine ( Miliyoni 10) zahunze igihugu cyabo bakaba banyanyagiye i Burayi.
Mu rwego rwa Geopolitike, Ukraine icyo yarwaniraga cyo kwiyunga muri OTAN ntabwo yabigezeho, ndetse n’ibiganiro bisa nkaho ari inzozi.
Igishoboka Poutine adafiteho ikibazo, ni uko Ukraine yakwakirwa m’Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’Uburayi, kuko ari uw’ubukungu utari uwa gisirikare.
Gusa k’urundi ruhande, iyi ntambara yatumye OTAN, ibona abanyamuryango bashya Finland na Suède.
